Annual Meetings-6A. Transportation & Logistics Outlook

6A. Transportation & Logistics Outlook - Dan Murray

Pdf Summary

The document is an ATRI presentation on the outlook for transportation, logistics, and inland marine trucking. It argues that the freight economy in 2026 will likely remain subdued rather than enter recession, because supportive fiscal policy and expected Fed rate cuts will be offset by tariffs and lingering uncertainty. A key theme is that supply chains are still working down inventories, while inflation has raised prices sharply since 2020, making “affordability” a major issue.<br /><br />The presentation identifies three main freight demand drivers: household consumption/retail, construction, and factory/industrial output. It notes that consumer spending is increasingly “K-shaped,” with higher-income households driving most spending, while goods demand is weaker than experiences. Home construction is uneven, and manufacturing has been mixed, with aerospace and electronics standing out.<br /><br />On trucking supply and operations, ATRI reports that operating costs remain high. Many cost categories have risen, especially driver wages, benefits, insurance, and truck/trailer payments, while freight rates have not kept pace. This has squeezed margins across the industry. Property carriers with interstate authority are also exiting the market, suggesting capacity adjustments. English language proficiency violations are highlighted as a regulatory issue.<br /><br />The slide deck also emphasizes broader industry pain points: congestion, cargo theft, truck parking shortages, and lawsuit abuse reform. Congestion costs were estimated at $108.8 billion in 2022, while cargo theft costs may reach $6.6 billion annually. ATRI’s top research priorities include insurance costs, entry-level driver training, in-cab monitoring, telematics data, cabotage violations, marijuana impairment testing, and autonomous trucks.

Keywords

transportation outlook

freight economy

logistics

inland marine trucking

supply chains

inflation

trucking operating costs

freight demand

cargo theft

truck parking shortages